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November 28, 2004
And then, one day, I just snapped...
Joey Comeau sent out the standard resume cover letters week after week after week, and... nothing. And then one day, something else emerged from the printer. The cover letter applying for a position as a college linguistics professor is my favorite.
Posted by John at 02:05 PM | Comments (0)
November 24, 2004
Stormy weather ahead
Look, I hate to be a party pooper. Everybody knows Eeyore, the beloved grey donkey from Winnie the Pooh. "It's probably going to rain. We'll all get soaked. This is never going to work." But, hey, it's clouding up real bad outside, and nobody brought an umbrella.
Yeah, I know we had a little bounce in the market, and we got through the elections without it winding up in the SCOTUS. There weren't any terrorist attacks, and oil prices actually dropped this week. But look down the road ahead, folks, and see if you don't agree that the bridge is out.
Christmas is always a good time to reflect on the dangers of consumerism, as manifest in shopping malls across this great nation at this time of the year. We're in debt, and it's not getting better.
I heard this morning that the Secretary of Agriculture announced that the agricultural trade balance was zero. Net import proceeds = net export proceeds for 2004. What's so bad about that, you ask? Well, see, only ten years ago we were running a $25 billion surplus in agriculture. But U.S. imports have increased steadily, as demand for diversification in food expands. U.S. consumers import crops to expand food variety, stabilize year-round supplies of fresh fruits and vegetables, and temper increases in food prices.
And the agricultural products exert a significant influence on the overall numbers. The overall trade deficit (actually the current account deficit, which is the broadest measure) reached a record $550 billion last year and appears headed toward about $650 billion this year, which would be equal to 5.7 percent of the nation's gross domestic product. That is up from less than 4 percent before 2000.
The consumer savings rate has already declined to only 0.2 percent in September from about 7 percent in the early 1990s. Total household debt has soared to 86 percent of GDP from 63 percent ten years ago and a 50-year mean of 53 percent. The Conference Board leading indicators have been down for five straight months. Initial weekly employment claims have shown no improvement since early in the year. The trade deficit is at record levels both on an absolute basis and relative to GDP. The economies of the EU and Japan have weakened significantly, and the declining U.S. dollar threatens to make their situation even worse with one EU central bank official calling the currency situation “brutal”. Some market pundits believe a declining dollar is good for the U.S. economy, but come on. If currency devaluation were that beneficial Argentina would be a major economic power.
To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, the U.S. has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day. That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings. Sustainable? I don't think so. Have you checked out the national debt lately? Take a quick peek at the number at the top of the page. Even Greenspan is saying explicitly that this cannot go on.
The problem, of course, is interest rates. Over half of the $6 trillion in refinancings that have occurred in the last few years have been to variable rate mortgages. Most have 2% annual increase caps. But a 2% increase in rates is going to mean an extra $120 billion coming out of consumers' pocketbooks. After tax. And it's possible that we'll see 2% increases in 2005. And 2006. And 2007. That's half a trillion dollars in disposable income, gone. And that doesn't count the corresponding increase in the discount rate underlying leases, in credit card interest rates, or in commercial lending.
So the scenario is rate hikes to stabilize the dollar and stem the tide of swelling deficits, which causes consumer spending to collapse, which causes corporate earnings to collapse, which causes the stock market to collapse. Rising rates increase corporate borrowing costs as well, impacting the bottom line, and with spending way down companies begin to contract. Layoffs and downsizings hit record numbers, and the ranks of the unemployed and underemployed approach double digits. The average US household net worth begins a rapid decline, which throws the boomer population that is on the verge of retirement into panic. Waves of personal and corporate bankruptcies crest over the national shores. The glut of repossessed property foreclosed against overleveraged homeowners causes home prices to plummet, locking in millions of people, underwater in their over-financed dwellings with no chance of getting out whole. It takes 4-7 years for values, prices and rates to stabilize at new levels, and for growth to commence, but by then the damage is done.
There is, of course, another scenario. The Fed could choose to inflate us out of this. Printing more money could get inflation quickly back up to the 7-10% range. At 10% inflation, we cut the deficit in half in real terms in seven years. So the cycle starts with the Fed allowing some moderate inflation. Of course, borrowers want real rates of return, so interest rates rise a corresponding amount. These rate hikes stabilize the dollar and stem the tide of swelling deficits, but this causes consumer spending to collapse, which causes corporate earnings to collapse, which causes the stock market to collapse... and you get the picture.
The economists and investment analysts I most respect are uniformly in a state of near panic. For one of the most comprehensive analyses, please go read "The Bubble" by Charles Minter and Martin Weiner of Comstock Partners. In a similar vein, check out what Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Stephen Roach has to say about the situation. [Hint: He uses the term "economic Armageddon".]
I am a firm believer in the power of a unified world economy, and I'm convinced that over the long term all interest rates are headed for 2%. That's the appropriate real rate of return in a zero inflation environment, and once the barriers to international trade have been removed, trade flows seamlessly across borders, and the movement of money has been fully globalized in real time, we'll be there. Of course, "in the long run" we're all dead. And I have a real concern that we may take a little detour from that path due to the storm that's brewing. It's looking less like a little squall on the horizon, and more like a perfect storm.
Posted by John at 12:57 AM | Comments (1)
November 23, 2004
Yea!! I came in 6th!!!
Well, OK, but still. Out of 79 entrants in the official unofficial MetaFilter election picking contest, I was one of the 10 who predicted a Bush victory, and came in 6th in overall score predicting both the popular vote (which I nailed) and the electoral vote (which I didn't). Go me! (I have to toot my own horn, because Mighty Matt Haughey of MetaFilter fame only called out the top five at the end of the post ... but then that's my story - always a bridesmaid, never a bride.)
Posted by John at 06:00 PM | Comments (0)
Dolphins to the rescue!
Dolphins are the coolest animals, even though otters do give them a run for their money. I don't think a romp of otters could have pulled this off.
A pod of dolphins circled protectively round a group of New Zealand swimmers to fend off an attack by a great white shark, media reported on Tuesday.BTW, do you know the difference between a dolphin and a porpoise? It gets confusing because the dolphinfish, also sometimes just called "dolphin" is the same fish as mahi-mahi or dorado, which you often see on the restaurant menu, and that is truly a fish, not a mammal. Orcas, however, are dolphins, even though they are called whales. Flipper was a bottlenose dolphin.
Posted by John at 04:56 PM | Comments (1)
Google Keyhole
On a related note, Google recently bought Keyhole, and you should definitely sign up for the seven day free trial and give it a spin. It is way cool. This is the technology you sometimes see on CNN or the major networks that shows a "flyover" of a certain locale. The only difference here is that you are in control, so you can fly over your house, your office, your nearest city. Watch the demo film clips at the site to see what it looks like.
When Google combines this with mapping and with their Google Local, it's going to really be something. Find me a place, show me a map, give me directions to drive there, show me what it looks like, give me a quick aerial overview.
Posted by John at 09:23 AM | Comments (4)
Google Scholar
Google Scholar is up in beta.
Google Scholar enables you to search specifically for scholarly literature, including peer-reviewed papers, theses, books, preprints, abstracts and technical reports from all broad areas of research. Use Google Scholar to find articles from a wide variety of academic publishers, professional societies, preprint repositories and universities, as well as scholarly articles available across the web.
Posted by John at 09:16 AM | Comments (0)
November 22, 2004
Homelessness solution
The housing shortage among hermit crabs is not a crisis that gets a lot of attention, but scientists have at least managed to find a solution. This page details the plans for artificial "shells" that can act as hermit crab homes. [link via MeFi] Perhaps the most alarming line in the article, though may be this one.
In exchange for financial support, each plastic shelter may be readily produced bearing a corporate logo.This strikes me as a really bad idea. I don't want the beach to start looking like the picture on the left. And once you start, where does it stop? You know the African elephant could be a walking billboard - lots of room there! How about a white rhino dyed Pepsi Blue®?
Posted by John at 10:57 AM | Comments (0)
November 21, 2004
Skateboarding dog
I
Love
The
Internet.
Posted by John at 12:13 AM | Comments (0)
November 18, 2004
Easy Money
If you haven't browsed around the pages of RewardsForJustice.net, you might want to give it a look. See if maybe you recognize a neighbor. Since there's up to $25 million at stake in reward money for the highest profile terrorist criminals, it might be worth a little extra effort. Besides, if they're going to keep putting up signs that say things like "Welcome to the Secret Al-Qaeda Headquarters!", how hard can it be to find them?
Posted by John at 05:08 PM | Comments (0)
New software
Man, where do you find all that cool new software? While it's still in Beta, even!
Posted by John at 12:58 AM | Comments (0)
November 17, 2004
For future reference
Microsoft Office templates, thousands of them.
Posted by John at 05:56 AM | Comments (0)
November 16, 2004
My next car
OK, my next car is DEFINITELY going to be a Citroen C4, but only if it performs as advertised (warning, link opens 4.67MB MPG movie file). And you better believe I'm test driving it. [props to Zannah for the link]
Posted by John at 06:02 PM | Comments (0)
November 14, 2004
Shipwrecks
Arrrrgh, mateys. Many's the fine ship cast to her watery grave by the none-too-tender caresses of these boisterous seas. This here site'll be pointing the way to some of the most prominent, from the Brianna to the Titanic. And the fine seamen who've put up this site have motion pictures of their dives as well!
Posted by John at 11:31 PM | Comments (0)
November 12, 2004
California does it again
Cartwheels and handstands have gotten an 11-year-old girl temporarily bounced out of her Los Angeles-area school.Deirdre Faegre was suspended for a week after repeatedly disobeying school officials who told her not to perform gymnastic stunts during lunchtime.
You know, if reinstating personal responsibility were to become George Bush's raison d'ętre during his second term, I would support a constitutional amendment to override the 2 term limitation, and electing him "President For Life". And you probably think I'm kidding. [The first act of the executive branch which administers the police powers of this nation should then be to hunt down and incarcerate every single member of the jury that awarded that woman money for spilling her McDonald's coffee in her lap. Oh, and the twinkie defense jury members too. It's a new age of accountability!]
Isn't it strange that when punishment for bad behavior is not allowed in our schools, that positive, healthy, fun, physical activity comes under attack. Maybe what we need to do is fight fire with fire, maybe get a turnverain* to sue the school district for discrimination. After all, they aren't prohibiting the track team members from running during recess, or the debate team members from debating. Yet.
Bush in '08! And '12! And '16! And '20! And '24....
Posted by John at 12:11 AM | Comments (0)
November 10, 2004
FTC getting cute
Wouldn’t it be nice to enjoy your favorite foods – pizza, pasta, fried chicken, gooey chocolate deserts – and watch the pounds melt away? Best of all, wouldn’t it be nice to have the trim, shapely figure you’ve always wanted without having to diet or exercise? NOW – FINALLY – YOU CAN!
Be sure to click on the "Order Now" section at the bottom of the page, or you'll miss the punchline.
Posted by John at 01:19 PM | Comments (0)
November 09, 2004
Bees 1, Dinosaurs 0
From the "Now why didn't I think of that?" department comes this story in Astrobiology magazine, wherein paleontology graduate student Jacqueline M. Kozisek of the University of New Orleans asks the intelligent question. Instead of asking what killed the dinosaurs, she asked "what survived?" Turns out that honeybees, providentially captured virtually intact in amber from as far back as the late Cretaceous period, are virtually identical to the modern day flower lovers. They obviously survived the alleged asteroid impact, and this is curious, since they aren't the toughest of creatures. Kozisek estimates that post-impact, winters could not have dropped temperatures more than 4 to 13 degrees F (2-7°C) without wiping out the bees.
BTW, that's a pretty cool online magazine. Reminds me of Omni magazine in days of yore. I'm old enough now that I can say that with a straight face. Days of yore.
Posted by John at 05:03 PM | Comments (0)
Welcome, y'all come on in! You're in...
I'll lay claim to having predicted a Bush victory many months ago, although I thought it would be more of the classic "don't change horses in the middle of the stream" reaction based on the war in Iraq, rather than the moral majority rising up in opposition to gay marriage. It all looks the same on the scorecard, though. And the scorecard, especially on a district-by-district basis, is pretty solidly Bush. And now, you can extend the suffering of your liberal friends by ordering the T-shirt!
Posted by John at 01:50 AM | Comments (1)
November 08, 2004
Record bowls
You've been wondering what to do with all those 33 1/3 RPM LPs you have lying around that you never listen to any more, right? Well, there's a nice little crafts page all set up to guide you through making record bowls. Don't forget to turn the oven off.
Posted by John at 05:12 PM | Comments (0)
